<h2><strong>Market Overview</strong></h2><p>Expect a week of tentative trading, with the dollar generally favored on safe-haven flows. The broader tone is one of hesitation: markets are waiting for macro surprises, central bank commentary, and geopolitical shifts. Major currencies may consolidate unless a strong catalyst emerges. EUR/USD is likely to test support zones, GBP/USD to remain vulnerable, and USD/JPY to extend gains if yen weakness persists.</p><h2><strong>Previous Week’s Recap</strong></h2><p>Over the prior week, the U.S. dollar firmed across major pairs amid global uncertainty. The euro fell to&nbsp;<strong>1.1570</strong> on October 13, a drop of&nbsp;<strong>0.42 percent</strong> from the prior session. Over the past month, EUR/USD has declined about&nbsp;<strong>1.64 percent</strong>, though it remains up about&nbsp;<strong>6.06 percent</strong> over the past year. (Source: historical exchange data)</p><p>USD/JPY advanced into the&nbsp;<strong>152.00s</strong> territory. The pair is currently trading above 152.30, benefitting from persistent yen weakness and a shift in risk tone. (Source: current JPY/forecast)</p><p>GBP/USD slipped under pressure amid mixed UK economic signals and cautious global sentiment. The pound struggled to find upside momentum despite occasional rebounds in global risk appetite.</p><h2><strong>Fundamental Outlook</strong></h2><p>Below is the anticipated macro schedule likely to influence currency pairs.</p><p>I. Monday</p><ul><li>No major scheduled data releases. Markets may react to geopolitical headlines, fiscal policy announcements, or unexpected commentary.</li></ul><p>II. Tuesday</p><ul><li>Eurozone and UK manufacturing or services PMI prints.</li><li>U.S. speeches from Fed officials or Treasury officials that may influence dollar sentiment.</li></ul><p>III. Wednesday</p><ul><li>U.S. core inflation, employment or ISM reports.</li><li>Eurozone industrial production or CPI metrics.</li><li>Potential central bank commentary from European and U.S. officials.</li></ul><p>IV. Thursday</p><ul><li>Inflation or labor metrics in the U.S. or Eurozone that could surprise.</li><li>Remarks from central bank members in the UK or euro area.</li></ul><p>V. Friday</p><ul><li>U.S. employment figures, manufacturing releases, or weekly surveys.</li><li>Position adjustments into weekend risk.</li></ul><h2><strong>Technical Analysis</strong></h2><p>Below is a comparison table with technical setups for major pairs:</p><figure class="table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Pair</strong></td><td><strong>Trend</strong></td><td><strong>Support</strong></td><td><strong>Resistance</strong></td><td><strong>RSI / Momentum Notes</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>EUR/USD</strong></td><td>Sideways to downward tilt</td><td>1.1500, then 1.1440</td><td>1.1725, then 1.1820</td><td>Momentum is weak. The pair is under selling pressure; a break below 1.1500 may open further downside.</td></tr><tr><td><strong>GBP/USD</strong></td><td>Softening / corrective</td><td>1.3260, then 1.3140</td><td>1.3526, then 1.3700</td><td>Momentum is biased lower until 1.3526 is breached. No strong oversold signals yet.</td></tr><tr><td><strong>USD/JPY</strong></td><td>Uptrend / bullish</td><td>150.00, then 149.36</td><td>153.274, then 155.00+</td><td>Momentum is strong. A break above 153.274 may accelerate the uptrend.</td></tr></tbody></table></figure><h2><strong>Weekly Forecast and Bias</strong></h2><p>We expect range drift unless a surprise macro print or policy message triggers a directional breakout. The dollar remains the reference axis around which other currencies rotate.</p><p><strong>EUR/USD</strong><br>Bias: Slightly negative, with potential for breakdown.<br>Expected Range: 1.1440 to 1.1740<br>If 1.1500 is breached, the decline may extend toward 1.1415 or deeper. If price clears 1.1725, a rebound up to 1.1820 is possible.</p><p><strong>GBP/USD</strong><br>Bias: Neutral to bearish.<br>Expected Range: 1.3140 to 1.3526<br>A break below 1.3260 might lead toward 1.3140. On the upside, 1.3526 is a key cap that must be overcome for bullish reversal.</p><p><strong>USD/JPY</strong><br>Bias: Bullish continuation.<br>Expected Range: 149.36 to 155.00+<br>If price breaks above 153.274, momentum could carry it higher. On the downside, if price slips under 150.00, trend integrity may be questioned.</p><h2><strong>Key Levels Summary</strong></h2><figure class="table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Pair</strong></td><td><strong>Bias</strong></td><td><strong>Support</strong></td><td><strong>Resistance</strong></td><td><strong>Comment</strong></td></tr><tr><td>EUR/USD</td><td>Mild negative</td><td>1.1500 → 1.1440</td><td>1.1725 → 1.1820</td><td>1.1500 is pivotal; a sustained break below may open deeper drops</td></tr><tr><td>GBP/USD</td><td>Bearish / neutral</td><td>1.3260 → 1.3140</td><td>1.3526 → 1.3700</td><td>The 1.3260 zone is critical; strong resistance at 1.3526</td></tr><tr><td>USD/JPY</td><td>Bullish</td><td>150.00 → 149.36</td><td>153.274 → 155.00+</td><td>A break above 153.274 could trigger further gains; support at 150 must hold</td></tr></tbody></table></figure><h2><strong>Trading Notes</strong></h2><p>Expect inconsistent momentum and intraday whipsaws unless a major surprise disrupts the path. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields should be tracked closely, as shifts there tend to lead EUR and GBP direction.</p><p>Headline risk is a key driver: unexpected central bank comments or policy surprises can generate sharp moves. Avoid chasing extremes; instead look to enter on confirmed breaks (daily close beyond a level) or retracements to support/resistance zones.</p><p>Stop sweeps are common near major levels (e.g. 1.1500, 1.1725, 1.3260, 153.274), so use prudent stop placement. Reassess midweek if price deviates substantially from the projected plan. Maintain flexibility.</p><h2><strong>Final Checklist</strong></h2><ul><li>Double-check the macro schedule timing in your local zone.</li><li>Use daily closes beyond key levels as entry confirmation.</li><li>Track U.S. yields and dollar index for early directional clues.</li><li>Trade with manageable size given the potential for whipsaws.</li><li>Use macro surprises or central bank changes as trade triggers.</li><li>If price breaks key zones, revise your bias accordingly.</li><li>Midweek, revisit the forecast and adjust ranges if conditions change.</li></ul>

Weekly Forex Forecast : 13–17 October 2025

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