Global Forex Market Context and Sentiment

In recent weeks the foreign-exchange market has been navigating a delicate balance. On one side, expectations of monetary easing from the U.S. central bank have weakened the U.S. dollar, prompting some currencies to recover or rally. On the other side, moderating growth signals from key economies and uncertain global economic developments have kept investors cautious. As we approach the first week of December many traders seem to be positioning carefully.

There is a sense of waiting for catalysts, with eyes fixed on upcoming economic releases and central bank signals. Liquidity remains moderate but not especially thin yet. The general tone feels cautiously optimistic for major non-USD currencies, though underlying risks remain significant. We expect the market to remain somewhat range-bound unless a strong surprise either positive or negative shifts momentum significantly.

Given this backdrop, the coming week may present opportunities for range trades, potential breakout moves if key data surprises, and selective sentiment-driven trades.

Previous Week Recap

The U.S. dollar remained broadly steady last week, despite rising market expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank in early December. That helped ease pressure on currencies like the euro and the pound.
Markets responded with caution to mixed global cues. There was some risk-on sentiment amid hopes for improved global trade and stabilizing growth, yet concerns lingered over slower economic momentum and inflation uncertainty in various corners of the world.
For the euro against the dollar (EUR/USD), the charts recorded a break below a previously rising trendline, which suggests renewed bearish pressure or at least a shift toward a neutral to bearish bias.
The GBP/USD pair remained under pressure. Given global uncertainty and some weak economic signals in the UK, sentiment toward the pound stayed fragile.
Overall traders appeared to favor caution over large directional bets. Many seemed to wait for more clarity from macroeconomic data or central bank commentary before committing to substantial moves.

Fundamental Outlook for 1-5 December 2025

Here is a table of major macroeconomic events, data releases, or anticipated catalysts for the coming week. These are likely to influence major currency pairs, especially those involving USD, EUR, GBP, JPY.

Day	Event(s)	Potential Impact
Monday, 1 Dec	No major high-impact data scheduled for many jurisdictions	Market likely to open the week quietly; traders may begin positioning ahead of mid-week releases.
Tuesday, 2 Dec	Various regional data releases possible — manufacturing or services PMI figures for some economies; markets may begin to react to early-week signals	Could set the tone for global risk sentiment and influence USD-pairs.
Wednesday, 3 Dec	Key economic data expected from major economies. Depending on the country, this might include inflation, GDP, employment, or central bank comments	High potential for sharp moves in FX; surprises may trigger volatility.
Thursday, 4 Dec	Additional macro data, potential central bank speeches or minutes, market focus on global growth and trade developments	Risk of divergence between economies may cause swings, especially in cross-currency pairs.
Friday, 5 Dec	End-of-week data such as PMI, consumer confidence, inflation or retail data from select economies; traders likely reposition ahead of weekend	Could spark last-minute moves in EUR, GBP, or USD crosses before markets quiet down.

Because recent sentiment has been cautious, any unexpected data strong or weak could trigger outsized responses. In particular, USD-related releases or shifts in global risk sentiment would likely influence broader FX trends. Further, multiple economies reporting data increases correlation effects for instance a solid euro-zone report might boost euro broadly, whereas weak U.S. data might add further downward pressure on USD

Technical Analysis Snapshot

Below is a simplified technical setup for key pairs, reflecting recent chart behavior and what to monitor during the upcoming week.

Pair	Recent Trend / Bias	Support	Resistance	Momentum / Indicator Notes
EUR/USD	Neutral to slightly bearish	Approximately 1.1550	Approximately 1.1770–1.1800	Price recently fell below a rising trendline; moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day) sit above current price. This suggests bearish pressure, unless support holds.
GBP/USD	Slight bearish bias	Roughly 1.2840–1.2900	Around 1.3200	Price action indicates hesitancy; the pair could test lower support if risk sentiment weakens, but bounce is feasible on positive surprises or stable global sentiment.
USD/JPY	Mixed to neutral, with bearish potential	About 154.50–155.50	Near 158.00–159.00	Momentum indicators suggest limited USD strength. The pair remains sensitive to global risk mood; any uptick in risk aversion or safe-haven demand could push JPY higher.

These ranges are approximate and heavily dependent on how the week’s fundamental events unfold. A surprise inflation reading, central bank hint, or global risk event could easily shift momentum.

Weekly Forecast

Overall, I expect a cautious but opportunity-rich week ahead. The market appears poised for modest upside for major non-USD currencies, tempered by vigilance toward macroeconomic outcomes and global risk sentiment.

EUR/USD: Expect a neutral to slight bearish bias. The pair may fluctuate between roughly 1.1550 and 1.1800 during the week. Unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges such as weak U.S. data or hawkish surprises in the euro-area downward pressure may dominate. A break below 1.1550 could pave the way toward 1.1400–1.1450. On the other hand, a rebound remains possible if risk sentiment improves.
GBP/USD: The outlook points to a neutral bias with slight bearish tilt. A trading range between approximately 1.2840 and 1.3200 seems likely. Should global risk sentiment brighten or UK-related data surprise positively, the pair could rally toward the upper range. Conversely, a slip in sentiment or negative data could press it toward support levels.
USD/JPY: Expect a neutral to mildly bearish or range-bound stance, dependent on risk mood. Possible trading range lies between 154.50 and 158.00. If risk aversion increases or the yen strengthens due to safe-haven flows, the pair may decline toward lower support. On the contrary, a risk-on environment could briefly push it higher.

Given the mix of macro events and modest–to-moderate liquidity, this week could yield sharp intraday swings rather than steady trending moves.

Key Levels Summary

Pair	Bias	Support	Resistance	Comment
EUR/USD	Neutral to bearish	~ 1.1550	~ 1.1770–1.1800	Likely range-bound; bearish tilt remains unless a bullish catalyst emerges.
GBP/USD	Neutral	~ 1.2840	~ 1.3200	Data releases and global sentiment will likely dictate direction.
USD/JPY	Neutral to bearish	~ 154.50	~ 158.00	Sensitive to global risk mood and safe-haven flows; watch for JPY strength.

Practical Trading Notes

Headline risk remains elevated this week because multiple economies will report macro data. Any data surprises, especially inflation or employment numbers could trigger sharp currency moves.
Dollar-index strength or weakness (DXY) will continue to play a central role. A weakening dollar may lift EUR, GBP, and other risk-linked currencies. Conversely, a stronger dollar could weigh heavily across FX.
Risk sentiment and global growth indicators remain crucial. If global uncertainty increases or markets turn cautious, safe-haven currencies such as JPY, CHF, or even USD might gain. If risk-on sentiment resurges, cyclical and commodity-linked currencies may benefit.
Given the recent technical pressure on some major pairs, traders need to watch for false breakouts. Lower liquidity or sudden volatility around data releases may produce sharp but short-lived moves.
Strong risk management is vital. Use appropriate stop-loss levels, avoid oversized positions, and respect support/resistance zones rather than chasing momentum.

Final Checklist

Confirm your broker’s economic-calendar time zone settings ensure times align with your local time zone (e.g. Indian Standard Time if you are trading from Delhi).
Identify volatility levels for each scheduled event. Avoid building large directional positions right before major data releases unless you are prepared for sharp moves.
Use stop-loss and take-profit orders keyed to support and resistance zones. Avoid over-leveraging.
Watch correlation across currency pairs. For example, dollar behavior often affects EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY together.
Maintain flexibility: prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios depending on how the data and events unfold.
If possible, wait for confirmation of momentum before increasing position size especially after major releases.

Bottom Line

The first week of December offers a mix of potential and caution for traders. With macroeconomic data on the horizon and central-bank commentary possible, the week could present meaningful opportunities but also considerable uncertainty.

From my vantage, this week seems best approached with range trades on familiar pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with careful attention to risk controls. For USD/JPY, I prefer to wait for a clear trigger such as a global risk-off move or a strong yen demand before committing.

If you like, I can expand this outlook to include commodity-linked currencies (such as AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD) or cross-pairs (for example EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY). This would give a wider picture of potential FX moves for the week.

Weekly Forex Forecast: December 1st - 5th, 2025

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