Market Overview

The global-currency markets enter the new week with an overall cautious tone, driven by a combination of monetary-policy uncertainty, growth-concern headwinds and risk-sentiment variability.

The U.S. dollar retains a measure of strength in the face of resilient U.S. data and market expectations of fewer rate cuts this year, while other major currencies face increased vulnerability.

The euro is under pressure as the European central bank remains on hold at 2.00 percent and emphasises that policy is “robust enough to manage shocks”. The British pound is weighed by sticky inflation in the UK and a central bank stance described as “on hold but not done”.

Meanwhile the Japanese yen remains weak with the Bank of Japan maintaining a policy rate of just 0.50 percent. Against this backdrop, the FX market is now re-pricing carry, growth and safe-haven alike going into November. That implies a bias toward the dollar, range-bound trading in major crosses and elevated volatility around data and central-bank events.

Previous Week’s Recap

During the past week major moves centred on the dollar’s resilience versus its peers. The EUR/USD pair ended October near the 1.1522 level, touching a three-month low as the dollar gained on policy expectations.

The weakness in the euro reflected the lack of fresh stimulus or rate-cut impetus from the euro-area central bank. The GBP/USD pair also retreated, testing sub-1.3100 territory as UK inflation remained elevated and the Bank of England offered no immediate easing path.

The USD/JPY pair pushed toward the 154.50 region amid yen-weakness linked to political jitters in Japan and unchanged ultra-loose monetary policy. Markets were increasingly focused on upcoming employment data, purchasing-manager-indices and central-bank speeches. Overall the dollar’s advantage gained ground, while many other major currencies retreated or consolidated.

Fundamental Outlook

Here is a table of key upcoming macroeconomic releases and central-bank meetings for the week 3-7 November 2025 (times in GMT unless otherwise noted) that are likely to influence major currency pairs.

Day	Event Description	Importance
Monday	Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Germany and Euro-area. Final S&P Global Services PMI for Germany and Euro-area	Key early snapshot of euro-zone manufacturing. The services sector is crucial for euro growth momentum
Tuesday	Official Cash Earnings (Japan) & Reuters-Tankan Index. Rate decision minutes from the Bank of Japan.	Influences yen via labour costs / business sentiment. Could shift outlook on yen and policy timing.
Wednesday	U.S. ADP Private Sector Employment Change. Final S&P Global Services PMI for U.S.	Leading indicator for U.S. non-farm payrolls. U.S. services growth remains core to the dollar outlook.
Thursday	Rate decision from Bank of England. U.S. ISM Services PMI.	Sterling sensitive to whether BoE signals cut risks. One of the largest single drivers of dollar movement.
Friday	U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) & Unemployment Rate.	Pivotal for dollar and risk-sentiment shift.

Technical Analysis

Below is a summary of technical setups for three major currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

Pair	Trend	Support	Resistance	RSI / Indicators
EUR/USD	Downward bias; pair broke below its rising trend-line and is trading under the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.	~1.1500 to 1.1550	~1.1800	RSI sitting below 50, momentum favouring bears.
GBP/USD	Bearish structure; weekly chart rejected near 1.38 (0.618 Fibonacci) and downward trend appears intact.	~1.3000	~1.3400	RSI in negative territory; trend aligns with downside risk.
USD/JPY	Bullish tilt for the dollar; the pair is trading near 154-155 zone, heading toward the next resistance cluster.	~144.00	~157.00	RSI near neutral but breakout bias to upside given fundamentals.

Weekly Forecast / Bias
For the week 3-7 November 2025 the directional bias is as follows:

The overall market tilt is moderately bullish on the U.S. dollar, and accordingly bearish to neutral on major crosses unless there are strong surprises.
EUR/USD: The pair is expected to trade between approximately 1.1500 and 1.1800, with a bias toward the lower end unless euro-zone data surprises positively. A break below ~1.1500 could open a sharper move toward ~1.1400. On the upside a sustainable breach above ~1.1800 is unlikely this week without a sharp shift in sentiment.
GBP/USD: The sterling remains under pressure. With the Bank of England decision looming, the pair may test support around 1.3000. If BoE signals easing risk or weak forward guidance, downward risk toward ~1.2800 could emerge. On the upside, resistance is around ~1.3400, but such a move would require a strong bullish trigger.
USD/JPY: The dollar may extend gains if U.S. data surprises and Japan remains on hold. A move toward the 157.00 region is possible if the breakout accelerates. On the downside, support at ~144.00 represents the key line to hold. A sharp reversal in risk sentiment or unexpected Bank of Japan hawkishness could push the pair down toward ~144.00.
Given the density of major data and central-bank events, range trading with attention to event windows is appropriate rather than expecting a clean trending week.

Key Levels Summary

Pair	Bias	Support	Resistance	Comment
EUR/USD	Bearish	~1.1500-1.1550	~1.1770-1.1800	If support breaks, further downside is likely.
GBP/USD	Bearish	~1.3000	~1.3400	Watch BoE language; downside risk elevated.
USD/JPY	Bullish	~144.00	~157.00	Break above resistance opens a larger upside target.

Trading Notes

Headline risk is materially elevated this week. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report remains the key event, but central-bank decisions in Japan and the UK add to risk. Positions should be managed with stop-losses and awareness of event windows.
The dollar-index correlation remains important. A rising dollar index (DXY) tends to correlate with weaker crosses like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, and stronger USD/JPY (i.e. weaker yen). Traders should monitor DXY for guidance.
Consensus is tilting toward fewer rate-cuts from the U.S. central bank than earlier expected, which supports the dollar. Meanwhile, other major central banks are in ‘on-hold’ posture, giving the dollar a relative advantage.
Carry trades (borrowing low-yield currencies to fund higher-yield ones) appear less attractive in a growth-concern environment. Volatility is likely to be higher than average and trend-following trades may incur whipsaws.
From a risk-management perspective, consider smaller position sizes ahead of major releases, and avoid entering large directional trades immediately ahead of events.
Liquidity may thin at times around data releases and central-bank announcements; slippage and spread widening are possible. Use caution with aggressive entries.

Final Checklist

Before trading the week ahead, ensure you have completed the following:

Confirm your economic calendar is adjusted to your time zone (Asia/Kolkata) and that you are aware of each event’s local time.
Mark all event windows listed above and reduce exposure or tighten risk ahead of these windows if you are not comfortable with surprise dynamics.
Verify your support/resistance zones are up to date; update them live if significant moves occur early in the week.
Set trade-risk parameters (stop-loss / take-profit) in advance for any position you initiate; ensure you are comfortable with the risk-reward profile.
Monitor the dollar index (DXY) closely; unusual strength or weakness may signal broader shifts in FX.
Be aware of correlations: strong USD often means weaker AUD, NZD, CAD and stronger safe-havens; conversely a weak USD may benefit commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies.
Avoid contesting the market without confirmation; wait for clear signals rather than chasing breakouts in a volatile, event-driven environment.
Review your portfolio exposure: if you carry multiple FX positions, evaluate if you are over-leveraged, especially given heightened event risk.
Keep a trading journal: note your rationale for each trade (fundamental, technical, sentiment) and review outcomes after events to refine strategy.
Maintain discipline: volatility may produce large moves, but erratic whipsaws are equally likely; focus on execution and risk control rather than anticipation alone.

Forex Forecast Nov 3-7: Weekly Market Trends & Setup

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